Opening weekend of the college football season is here. It’s about as loaded a Week One schedule as we’ve ever seen. Certainly, we’re interested in investing in some of those showdowns, right? Not really. What about the heavyweight bout between Clemson and Georgia? Or Alabama and LSU challenging themselves against good Power 5 foes? Not interested. I’d rather watch those games with no emotional attachment involved. What about the set of compelling Big Ten conference head-to-heads? Nah, although we did make game predictions on those here earlier. We don’t need any of those sexy games. Why not? Because we have Oregon State at Purdue. It’s our one and only (for now) Sicko Pick Of The Week, and we like the road underdog.
Haven’t Purdue games during the Brohm Era been a roller coaster ride? Most Purdue games hang in the balance well into the fourth, usually something weird happens, and when the dust settles there’s always a bevy of impressive offensive stats to chew on from the final box score. Now we’re adding a goofy Pac-12 team into the mix. The only way this game could get more interesting for us is if it would kick off four hours later into the night.
Purdue has played 24 one score games in the 44-games under Brohm. The Boilers need to start winning more of those close ones. They’re just 8-16 in those one score games under Brohm. That helps explain why despite the Boilermakers 19-25 overall record during the Brohm tenure being a huge improvement compared to the 9-31 mark of his predecessor Darrell Hazell, there’s a sense there should already be more wins on the ledger.
Purdue is a full touchdown favorite and that caught our eye. This is a matchup between a bad favorite and good underdog. Purdue has lost their last six games outright as a favorite and are just 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 opportunities laying points. Meanwhile, the Beavers have become the west coast’s little underdog engine that could. Oregon State still isn’t producing a lot of wins, but they are bagging a ton of covers, especially when catching points. The Beavers are 11-4 ATS as an underdog since the start of 2019. We like riding both of these trends. The Beavers have the better offensive line. Their linebackers are probably the only good thing about either defense. New QB Sam Noyer, who started every game last year for surprising Colorado, will provide enough of an X-factor with his legs to keep the Beavers within a touchdown, of not win it outright.
Our bet is somebody will win this game 35-31. We’ll take the touchdown head start with Oregon State.