First Place Illini Sit Atop Big Ten Picks. And The West.
What are the odds Illinois stays alone in first place? I'm glad you asked....
Everyone is talking about Nebraska losing to Illinois in Week Zero while having a lot of fun with records in the process. Like Scott Frost’s 12-21 record is the same as Tim Brewster’s was at Minnesota. Or that he would need to go 37-1 in his next 38 games (spoiler alert: he’s probably not going to get 38 more games) just to match Jim Harbaugh’s current record at Michigan. And that he would need to go 16-1 to match the hated Bill Callahan’s career mark at Nebraska. Or that he would need to win his next seven in a row to match the ineffectual Mike Riley in wins at Nebraska and nine in a row to reach Riley’s career .500 mark as Husker head coach. But who’s counting anyway? Besides all of us, of course.
Not enough people are talking about the Illini. They crushed Nebraska’s soul on the 14-play, 8-minute touchdown drive to open the second half. They sacked Adrian Martinez five times. Two former QBs for Illinois made big plays as wide receiver. Their starting QB Brendan Peters was knocked out of the game, but much maligned Arthur Sitkowski saved the day and looked efficient in the process. Two years ago it looked like he might threaten the single season Big Ten interception record. Now? He has the second longest streak of passes thrown without an interception among active players. Seeing if and for how long he can extend that streak is reason enough to keep an eye on the Illini’s game with UT San Antonio this weekend. So is the fact that the line in that contest has tumbled two whole points at Draft Kings from Illinois -6.5 to -4.5. The Illini are officially on upset alert a week after their thrilling win over Nebraska.
Win or lose, Illinois will still be the #FirstPlaceIllini at week’s end. Yep, Illinois is the current Big Ten Western Division frontrunner. Considering their next two conference games are later this month against Maryland and Purdue, they have a chance to keep at least a share of first place into October. But why settle for a share? With four West vs. East conference crossover games this weekend, surely some teams will join the Illini at 1-0 atop the West standings. But what if Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa all lose? If that happens, Illinois will remain alone in first place. What are the odds that happens? Let’s take a look. The following are the moneyline odds to win the game straight up for all four Big Ten West conference opponents this weekend. (To review, the + number represents how much a bettor would win on a $100 wager. The – number represents how much a bettor would need to wager in order to win $100)
Ohio State -600 over Minnesota
Michigan State +135 over Northwestern
Penn State +180 over Wisconsin
Indiana +150 over Iowa
One heavy favorite with Ohio State and three short to medium underdogs in the other contests. If you were to wrap those four together in a parlay—the Keep Illinois In First Parlay—your odds to win at Draft Kings would be +1720. A $100 bet would pay out $1,720. That’s a little bit better than 17/1. That’s not a shabby payout, but, of course, all four teams would need to win straight up in order for you to cash it. I don’t like parlays, so I will not be doing this. It’s hard enough to win one bet, let alone the four you would need on this hypothetical ticket. If you do play this, you have a great shot at getting the first two in the books with Ohio State tonight and Michigan State on Friday night. Maybe that opens up a hedging opportunity or two for you on Saturday. Pie in the sky parlays aside, here’s who I like in the four conference head-to-heads in Week One.
OHIO STATE AT MINNESOTA. LINES OHIO STATE -14, OVER/UNDER 62.5
When these clubs last played in 2018, it was a coming out party of sorts for PJ Fleck’s Minnesota program. They had played poorly in his first season and a half as Gopher coach. A drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes in Columbus was expected. Instead, Minnesota gave Ohio State all they could handle through three quarters and a freshman running back named Mo Ibrahim ran through huge holes to his first career 100-yard game. The Buckeyes managed to pull away in the fourth quarter and win 30-14, but the Gophers found something that day. They’re 17-7 since that game in the Horseshoe almost three years ago. They’re also 10-5 against the spread as an underdog with seven outright wins during that same span. However covering the spread and beating Purdue as an underdog is whole different story than doing it against the Buckeyes. #ThanksMrObvious
The Gophers are an intriguing team. While they’ve lost a lot of skill talent in recent years, Fleck has recruited those spots well and they still have Ibrahim to tote the rock. Their offensive line ended up one of the best units in the league a year ago. Now they add back into the mix Curtis Dunlap and Daniel Faalele, their two best linemen from 2019, who missed last season with a torn Achilles and Covid issues respectively a year ago. Can one of the biggest lines in the country lean on the Buckeyes and open running lanes for Ibrahim like they did against almost everyone else a year ago? Probably not enough to keep up with OSU. The bad news for Minnesota is a defense that was dead last in the league in yards per play allowed in 2020 doesn’t look primed for a big improvement. Fleck’s teams at Minnesota have always struggled early on in the season, be it their lethargic non-conference wins in 2019 or the beatdown Michigan put on them in the opener a year ago. Expect Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to both go over the 100-yard mark and make QB CJ Stroud’s debut look easy. Speaking of debuts, stud freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson might steal the show with some impressive second half yards and scores as the Buckeyes pull away by a 42-21 score. But look out for the Gophers going forward. They have a lot of winnable games in September and October and none of those foes will put pressure on their shaky defense like the Buckeyes will. Don’t be surprised if they’re 7-2, ranked in the national polls, and in the thick of the West Division race come November.
MICHIGAN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN. LINES NORTHWESTERN -3, OVER/UNDER 46
The Michigan State betting total for regular season wins is 5, but the Over is slightly favored at -120. The Northwestern total is 6.5 wins, but the under is favored at -120. I’ve convinced myself this is a hidden sign that Michigan State will win this game. This feels like a game where the winner will have enough to make the postseason while the loser will face an uphill climb to notch bowl eligibility. A bowl swing game in Week One? On a Friday night? Sign this sicko up!
Bettors believe in the Spartans in this game as this line as steadily fallen since it was posted earlier in the summer from Northwestern -6.5 to the -3 it is today. Series history suggests Michigan State is the side too. These teams have played five straight seasons. The underdog has won outright in four of those games, covering the spread by more than 20 points in three of those contests.
Both teams look brand new compared to a year ago. Between transfers and Mel Tucker’s first full recruiting class, the Spartans have remade their roster. I’m intrigued to see these MSU transfers, many of whom will be starting or at least contributing on the two-deep at almost every position group on the team. I lean towards this crew of newcomers giving the Spartans enough of jolt to make real progress this season. They give Tucker a legitimate shot at something akin to a actual Year Two after bottoming out a year ago in a Year Zero type of situation.
Speaking of new teams, Northwestern is on the other end of the spectrum. Have you seen all the players they’ve lost to the next level, transfer portal, or injuries? This includes several program all-timers on the defensive side of the ball who’ve started for the better part of at least three seasons. The result is the least recognizable depth chart I’ve seen from Northwestern in years. The national average for returning production is 76.7%, but the Wildcats return just 35%, second to last in the nation. That’s a huge disparity and it’s hard not to imagine that having a detrimental impact on Northwestern’s season. The Wildcats have been on quite a run lately with winning Big Ten records in five of the last six seasons and a pair of West Division crowns. But the collapse of 2019 when they went 1-8 in league play happened. They’re going to back to the starting QB who helped engineer that season. Is Hunter Johnson any better now than he was then? The Wildcats are also breaking in a new defensive coordinator after longtime defensive guru Mike Hankwitz retired. A bunch of new players with a new coach? Sounds like a lot of confusion and missed assignments, especially in the first game.
Michigan State was terrible and still won this game a year ago. Why wouldn’t they win again when they bring in a more talented roster than a year ago and Northwestern has to replace so many bigtime contributors? Look for MSU’s underrated 1-2 punch at wide receiver Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed to take advantage of the inexperienced Northwestern D and make enough plays in the passing game to nudge the Spartans ahead in the end, 20-16.
PENN STATE AT WISCONSIN. LINES: WISCONSIN -5.5, OVER/UNDER 50
There’s a lot of Penn State hype out there, mostly because they rallied off the mat from an 0-5 start to win their final four games a year ago. But the teams they beat in that run combined for a 9-21 record a year ago. They lost to bad teams too like Nebraska (yes, that Nebraska) and Maryland. Losing your starting tailback to injury during the first possession of the season didn’t solely create last year’s issues, but many folks are shrugging off PSU’s problems a year ago because of that fact. I can’t shake the feeling that Wisconsin handles Penn State, eventually winning this game by more than a touchdown. I’m excited to watch the chess match between Wisconsin DC Jim Leonard and new Penn State OC Mike Yurich. However, Sean Clifford going against this Badger defense seems like a bad idea. Wisconsin, as usual, is loaded with linebackers and defensive backs. It’s not a stretch to see them making life miserable for Clifford for most of the day. The new Nittany Lion offense will catch the Badgers off guard and land a couple haymakers, but they won’t be able to sustain drives for most of the afternoon. As for Penn State’s defense, their cache of a killer DEs are all gone. It certainly does not look like a vintage Nittany Lion Front 7 and in certain lineups might be a little on the small side. I keep having flashbacks to non-vintage, somewhat smaller-than-usual Michigan defensive fronts being steamrolled by the Badgers the last two seasons. It won’t be that bad, but the expectation here is that the Badger offense is going to have a lot more success against the Penn State defense than the Nittany Lion offense will against the Badger defense. Graham Mertz is going to have a big year and begin to showcase his recruiting hype. That process begins with a 250-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Nittany Lions leading the Badgers to a 27-16 win.
INDIANA AT IOWA. LINES INDIANA -3.5, OVER/UNDER 46
Indiana made a lot of headlines a year ago with breakthrough victories week after week. They beat Michigan for the first time since 1987, defeated Penn State for just the second time in 24 tries, and snapped a 10-game losing streak to Wisconsin. Guess what the Hoosiers need to do to get their 2021 campaign off to a good start? Win another breakthrough game. The Hoosiers are just 3-12 at Kinnick Stadium and have lost 21 of their last 28 to the Hawkeyes. How will this year be different? When Indiana has been able to win in Iowa City, they’ve come armed with program all-time talents like James Hardy in 2007 and Antwaan Randle-El in 1999. The 2021 Hoosiers have players like that on both sides of the ball. I like the Indiana defense against Iowa QB Spencer Petras. Petras was inconsistent a year ago on a possession-by-possession basis. Meanwhile the Hoosier defense made QBs look bad for long stretches in almost every game a year ago. They’re varied fronts and blitzes ought to confuse an Iowa offensive line that doesn’t have much experience after C Tyler Linderbaum. Indiana catches Iowa at a perfect time as their usual stout trenches are in somewhat of a transition on both sides of the ball. The Indiana offense won’t exactly light up the Iowa defense but I like the big play potential of Michael Penix Jr. and Tyler Fryfogle to make just enough plays over the top to give the Hoosiers a tight 21-16 win.
Ohio State and Wisconsin minus the points. Michigan State and Indiana plus the points. That’s one big road favorite, a home favorite, and two road dogs. As it turns out, we like three of the four teams in the Keep Illinois In First Place parlay.
Who do you like?