Week Five Big Ten Picks Rolls With Chalk
Three Double Digit Favorites? Who kidnapped Just Cover Blog?
The season is already going by way too fast. We’re already into October. Or should we call it Chalktober. Why? Because I like a lot of favorites this week in the Big Ten and beyond. We’re pretty much consistent underdog players, so a column with six favorites, including three double digit ones goes against our character. At least one of the big favorites is Ohio State. I think that’s good news. Hopefully.
I’ve got to be a little short today. As the rest of the season rolls along, I’ll be expanding our posting to 2-3 posts a week and eventually some podcasts. I enjoy writing picks posts, but there’s more I want to do. So stay tuned and good luck with whoever you pick this weekend. Here’s our advice in the Big Ten.
(Season record: 13-10-1)
IOWA AT MARYLAND. Lines, Iowa -3.5; O/U 47.5
This a great offense versus defense battle. The Terps average over 37 points per game. Iowa has allowed a mere 11 points per game this season, and the Hawkeyes haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 24 points in 25 games. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa is averaging 9.1 yards per pass and 335 passing yards a game. Iowa permits just 5.8 yards per pass and 180 passing yards per game. Tagovailoa has just one interception this year. Iowa leads the country in interceptions since 2017 and have swiped six passes already this year. Maryland has all sorts of future NFL talent at the skill positions. Iowa has one of the best back-7s in the country. This shapes up to be a good game in the Friday night primetime slot.
Iowa is ranked in the top-5, but I don’t think they’ve been playing all that well. They were on the struggle bus all game against Colorado State, squeaking by with a 24-14 win. Iowa has had a lot of fortunate sequences this season. Multiple pick-6s in the first half sparked the Indiana blowout. Three turnovers in an eight-play sequence broke open a close game in the fourth quarter against Iowa State. Last week against Colorado State, they got a turnover at the 6-yard line to help set up a tying touchdown in the third quarter. What happens to Iowa if they can’t not only get turnovers, but turn them into immediate points? They’re playing an offense in Maryland that might force their own shaky offense into having to win the game for them. QB Spencer Petras has been average. The Hawkeyes needed a pair of long plays to a true freshman WR making his college debut to get any offense going last week against the Rams. They still have Tyler Goodson, but the running game has struggled too. In 2020, the Hawkeyes rushed for 5.9 yards per carry with their tailbacks. This year that figure has plummeted to 4.3 yards per carry, but if take out Goodson’s 56-yard run against Indiana—the first carry of the season—then Iowa tailbacks are going for just 3.8 yards per pop. They have an all star at center with Tyler Linderbaum, but the rest of the OL has been unsettled and a couple of injuries have hampered them. The Hawkeyes are 80th in the country with 2.25 sacks allowed per game and 103rd in TFLs allowed per game at 7.25. They were 21st and 33rd a year ago in these categories.
With the Terps getting more than a field goal, we’ll take a stab with the offense in this one. Tagovailoa has been too good this year and has a deep, varied set of targets. He hasn’t been turning it over. And his offensive line has overachieved and allowed just one sack this year. Even when under duress, Tagovailoa is the second pass passer in the country when under pressure. The way he’s playing he should be able generate some offense even against this tough defensive outfit. Iowa has been waling a tightrope all season. With the Terps, they run into an offense that can make them play for that. The Pick: Maryland +3.5
MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN. Lines Wisconsin -1; O/U 43.5
It’s Jim Harbaugh’s 0-12 record on the road as an underdog up against Graham Mertz’s 0-5 record against ranked teams. Somebody is breaking that doughnut in the win column. Neither fan base expects it to be them. Since I’m part of the Michigan fanbase, I don’t think Michigan will win.
My worry about the Wolverines here is how are they going to score against this Badger D. It’s a championship level defense in Madison. They’re allowing a single yard per rushing carry. I can’t see Michigan pounding the rock at all in Madison. Rutgers held them to less than three yards per carry. What’s the Wisconsin D going to do them? They will make Cade McNamara have to win this game through the air. I think Michigan can pass protect a lot better than Notre Dame did a week ago, but the question remains can McNamara get the job done?
His counterpart for Wisconsin has not been able to get the job done. It’s the Badgers primary weakness. He doesn’t have a single completion this year on a ball that’s travelled more than 20 yards in the air. His numbers against ranked teams are putrid, averaging 5.3 yards per pass and accounting for 16 turnovers. He’s been sacked 12 times in those games. All those were losses as a predictable Badger offense with no ability to get chunk plays from it’s passing or running game wheezed to a mere 8.6 points per game.
I think Wisconsin wins this one behind a pissed off Badger defense. In their losses to Penn State and Notre Dame, the Badger D had chances early on for huge turnovers, possible points off those TOs, and a lot of early momentum. But interceptions were dropped and fumbles not recovered. Lady lucky favors them this time. An early Michigan turnover sets the Badgers up for an easy score and they never trail in an otherwise tight, low scoring affair. Michigan is playing their first road game after four in a row at home. I hate that situation. The Pick: Wisconsin -1
OHIO STATE AT RUTGERS. Lines, OSU -14; O/U 57.5
It’s quite the sticker shock to see Ohio State favored by so little against Rutgers. It feels like a steal. The average Vegas spread in this series the last five years was 38.2 points. The lowest point spread was -28 in 2017 and four of the other five were at least -35. When these teams played on this field in 2019, the Buckeyes were favored by 52 points. What’s remarkable is this line opened at -16, but early bettors jumped on Rutgers so much the spread dropped down to 14 during the week. Schiano is 6-3 against the spread as a dog against the Big Ten in his second go around at Rutgers.
Rutgers doesn’t have a dynamic offense. But they can do some things with Noah Vedral’s legs and guys like Isaih Pacheco and Bo Melton are legit Big Ten skill players. They’re coming off their best offensive performance of the season against Michigan, gaining 40.3% of the available yards and over 5 yards per play against the Wolverines. Can that keep up against an Ohio State defense that’s been vulnerable and changing itself on the fly. Can the havoc minded Rutgers defense force the punts they did in the second half against Michigan last week. I think Rutgers can hang a little bit with Ohio State. This one will likely play out like the Buckeyes game against Tulsa two weeks ago. A closer than expected game that Ohio State blows open with some big plays enlarging the margin of victory to over 20 points. The Buckeyes are one of teams you can trust to dial up big plays—they’re third in country with 30 plays of 20 or more yards—from an assortment of players. That home run ability separates them in the second half. The Pick: Ohio State -15
MINNESOTA AT PURDUE. Lines Purdue -2.5; O/U 46.5
It’s probably prudent to jump off the Minnesota bandwagon after last week’s embarrassing loss to Bowling Green as 30.5-point favorites. However, we’ve seen this from Minnesota under PJ Fleck. Last week was their fifth straight game, and sixth of their last seven, against a Group of 5 foe that was decided by a single score of less. Remember in 2019 the Gophers almost lost to Georgia Southern only to beat Purdue 38-31 in their conference opener the next week. Or how about earlier this year? In Week 2 the Gophers nearly lost to Miami Ohio, but the next week went on the road and clubbed Colorado 30-0. There’s no excuse for losing to Bowling Green, but the Gophers under Fleck have always played up or down to their opponent. It finally bit them against the Falcons.
Minnesota has won nine of the least 12 and three in a row over Purdue. This has been a very good matchup for Fleck’s Gophers. As bad as it tastes, the Boilermakers might be the perfect tonic for a Minnesota team coming off an embarrassing loss. So many of their best players are game-time decisions. It looks like the Boilers will be out the top two tailbacks, its top wide receiver, its top tight end (who’s also their second most productive pass catcher, and they’ve played musical chairs at the quarterback position the last two weeks. Purdue has improved on defense, but they still give up over 120 rushing yards a game. The Minnesota offensive line that played against OSU and Colorado shows up in this game. Trey Potts will carry the Gophers to a close, low scoring bounce back win. We do have a thing for road underdogs coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite. We’re holding our nose and taking Minnesota here. The Pick: Minnesota +2.5
NORTHWESTERN AT NEBRASKA. Lines, Nebraska -12; O/U 52
October is an important month for Nebraska. It’s not make or break necessarily for the Scott Frost Era, but there are four very winnable on the docket this month for the Cornhuskers. A series of strong performances could net Nebraska a winning record headed into November for the first time since 2016. Next week, they have a marquee home night game against Michigan. They also play Northwestern this Saturday and Purdue and Minnesota later in the month. It’s those three opponents that have illustrated more than anything how far behind Nebraska has fallen relative to their local peers. The Huskers are just 3-6 against those three Big Ten West schools under Frost. They’ve lost at least twice to each of those programs. Nebraska can not even begin to be back until they can lock in wins against those programs every year. Vintage Nebraska probably only losses once or twice combined to these programs a decade. Current Nebraska is chasing them from behind.
The stretch starts off with one the closest series in the Big Ten. Nebraska and this week’s foe Northwestern have played each other every year Nebraska has been in the Big Ten. Almost all the contests have been tight. Eight of the ten games have been decided by one score or less, six a field goal or less and two of the last three games won on walk off field goals. The programs are dead even with five wins apiece since the conference series began, with Northwestern winning four of the last six. The Wildcats are 13-3-1 against the spread as double digit underdogs with seven outright wins.
That’s some solid history and you’d be making a sensible choice trying to ride that in this one. We’re not sensible. We’re part of the loud chorus that thinks this Northwestern team stinks and they’ll be lucky if they win any more games before the finale against Illinois. It’s just a total rebuilding year in Evanston. Meanwhile, for Nebraska, Adrian Martinez and the passing game are clicking, his receivers are emerging, and the Husker defense might finally be a top half in the Big Ten unit. In each of their two games against Power-5 foes, Northwestern quickly fell behind by multiple scores. No reason that won’t happen here. Nebraska lets out a lot of frustration in a blowout win of Northwestern. The Pick: Nebraska -12
INDIANA AT PENN STATE. Lines, Penn State -12; O/U 53.5
You know what is aging like bananas? The Hoosiers legitimacy in the wake of their magical 2020 season. The encore has been dismal. Michael Penix Jr. looks broken. He’s already tossed as many picks this year as he did last year. His yards per pass is down by almost two yards. The running game is as average as ever. The offensive line has had a lot of trouble getting push. And then there’s the defense. The unit that’s spearheaded Indiana’s ascent the last two seasons is slumping. They’ve been a solid unit, but the havoc plays have disappeared, perhaps the transition costs of having to break in a new defensive coordinator Charlton Warren. When Head Coach Tom Allen elevated Warren’s predecessor Kane Womak to run the defense in 2019, he gave him the specific charge of creating more pressure and turnovers. We saw the fruit of the last year when Indiana led the Big Ten in sacks and interceptions per game. For the season, they had a combined 42 sacks and picks in 8 games. This year that magic has not returned with just eight combined sacks and interceptions, well off last year’s pace. Some of that is probably simple regression to the mean. But some of it is an experienced defense trying to get used to a new system. If Indiana turns their season around, it will probably because the defense has finally picked up Warren’s scheme better and are making havoc plays again like the last two seasons.
Penn State’s strength of schedule is aging a bit like a bunch of bananas, with Wisconsin dropping another game and Auburn needing a miracle fourth down conversion and some shaky officiating in their favor to sneak past Georgia State. I don’t think the Nittany Lions care about that. They have revenge on their mind. Do you think they’re chomping at the bit to get a piece of the Hoosiers? They’re still smarting from The Stretch, Penix’s did he or didn’t he score moment at the end of last year’s Penn State-Indiana game. Penn State’s active, athletic defense will overwhelm the Hoosiers at certain times. In all four games this year, Penn State has exceeded 6 yards per play while none of their opponents have gone over 4.8 yards per play. That edge at least maintains itself this Saturday night. Penn State eventually runs away and hides from the Hoosiers by at least two touchdowns. The Pick: Penn State -12
And here are four picks that aren’t Big Ten head-to-heads:
Charlotte +10.5 over Illinois……Charlotte is a B-level version of Texas San-Antonio out of the same Conference USA. The actual UTSA beat Illinois in Champagne. The B-level version of them should have enough offense to cover this number
UAB -2 over Liberty……Liberty is an exciting team and Malik Williams is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, regardless of level. But we’re on the Blazers here. UAB has been great at home since restarting the program in 2017. They’re 21-1 in Birmingham since then. IN this one, they’re at home for the first time this season and their opening up their brand new stadium. We’ll lay the short number with a great home field advantage
Buffalo +7 over Western Michigan…..We were on the Broncos last week, but it was a perfect spot with an early start against a west coast team in so-so weather. The Broncos have been impressive the last two weeks, forcing oddsmakers to make them full touchdown road chalk in their conference opener. The thing is, I can’t tell the pecking order in this league yet. I’m not sure anybody should be favored like this in league play, unless they’re playing Akron or Bowling Green (Sorry, Minnesota) Two other league games this are basically a pick ‘em . I feel like this one should be too, or at least nothing more than a field goal spread. The Bulls are on a 15-3 run at home, including wins on 11 of their last 12 MAC home games. We’ll gladly take them with a touchdown head start here.
Oregon State -1.5 over Washington…..the last time the Beavers were the hot team, their current head coach was their quarterback. Love that symmetry. More than anything, we’re fading the Huskies every time they come against an even peer in conference play. Beavers QB Chance Nolan is the difference here.