Week 4: BIG TEN PICKS PLUS
The Mertz-Coan grudge match is here. Plus Illinois-Purdue break their series tie, are you not entertained?
Let’s take a quick peak into next week. Draft Kings posted a handful of odds for next weekend’s games. Two of interest stood out:
Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Michigan
Notre Dame -1 vs. Cincinnati
These odds have already shifted from the lines Draft Kings put out over the summer. The Badger-Wolverine contest has shifted almost a touchdown. Wisconsin had been -9.5 at Draft Kings. Meanwhile, Notre Dame was -3.5 over the Bearcats when the online book installed lines this summer. Obviously those lines could shift even more if either the Irish or Badgers score a decisive win this weekend.
But as it stands now, what’s more surprising? A Group Of 5 team basically a pick ‘em on the road in South Bend? Or Wisconsin laying such a short number at home against a team its rammed by a combined 84-25 the last two seasons? Or is it even that surprising at all? Anyway getting back to this weekend…..
WISCONSIN VS. NOTRE DAME (SOLDIER FIELD), NOON, FOX
LINES: WISCONSIN -6.5; O/U 45
Everyone’s rightful focus is the referendum on the Graham Mertz vs. Jack Coan outcome that left Mertz the starter in Madison and Coan in search of a new home which he found in South Bend. But this game has ramifications beyond the regional bragging rights and the quarterback-I-told-you-so’s. Think of who’s cheerleading on the sideline for a certain outcome. Penn State would love a Badger win to boost their already sterling resume. How about Iowa? A Wisconsin win could set up a playoff elimination game against the Hawkeyes, while also settling the Big Ten West in their late October clash. On the other hand, if Notre Dame wins, that seriously raises the stakes of next week’s game against Cincinnati. Or minimizes them should they lose. The Bearcats need a strong Notre Dame team to have a chance in any playoff argument. This is not only destined to be a classic between brand names that rarely play each other, but it will also have strength of schedule reverberations for one-third of the current top-10.
I don’t trust Wisconsin as a favorite. Here’s why. Here are the Badger scores in four of their last five games against Power-5 foes: 7, 6, 7, 17, and 10. Whenever the Badgers get brought up, everyone waxes on about Mertz’s 2020 near flawless opener against Illinois. They don’t talk enough about how he hasn’t been able to engineer points against the decent defenses he’s faced since. One thought I can’t shake is had Coan been Wisconsin’s QB in the opener, they probably would have defeated Penn State. Mertz and the passing game haven’t shown big play ability. Nor has, surprisingly, its running game. From 2011-2019, the Badgers averaged over three rushes per game the exceeded 20 yards. They averaged one 40+ run per game during that stretch. However, from the beginning of last season through this year’s Penn State opener, the Badgers only had six runs of 20+ yards in eight games and not even one that at least reached that 40-yard mark. They did have two such runs a week ago, but that was against Eastern Michigan. Wisconsin has had a long lineage of backs who could take any carry to the House, but since Jonathon Taylor left, it’s disappeared from their arsenal. Wisconsin’s offense has been decent in between the 20s but has been leaving points on their field for well over a year now. Why wouldn’t that continue again in this one? The Pick: Notre Dame +6.5
ILLINOIS AT PURDUE, 3:30, BIG TEN NETWORK
LINES: PURDUE -11; O/U 54.5
Interesting stakes when Illinois and Purdue square off this weekend. The all-time series is tied 45-45-6, so somebody is going to take the historical lead in a series that dates back to 1890. Furthermore, if it’s Purdue that emerges victorious, then the Boilermakers would retake the series lead for the first time since 1902. It would become just the third Big Ten team Purdue would have a series winning mark against, the others being Northwestern and Indiana. That includes Rutgers against whom the Boilers are 0-2 against, both since the Scarlet Knights entered the league. If the all-time series lead being at stake isn’t enough for you, there’s always The Cannon, the trophy the two schools have been fighting for since 1943. And you thought this game was just for Sickos.
Will Head Coach Jeff Brohm play musical chairs again with his quarterback? He pulled Jack Plummer for Aidan O’Connell in the fourth quarter of a one score game last week. The Boilers come into the game with their top tailback Zander Horvath out with a fractured leg, their best WR David Bell in concussion protocol all week, and a porous offensive line. Meanwhile, for Illinois the goal is building on last week’s mostly solid effort in a down to the wire loss to Maryland. The key might be freshman running back Josh McCray. Illinois has played a lot of tailbacks this year, but in McCray they might have found their top choice. He was the first to sign at Illinois after the Bielema hiring, coming up from Alabama despite offers Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee. He had 101 total yards from scrimmage last week and seemed to give the rushing game a gear it has lacked all year. If the Illini hang in this game, McCray is probably going to have his fingerprints on it.
The rule of thumb with Purdue under Brohm has been to take them as underdogs and fade them as favorite. They’ve bucked that trend in both games against Power-5 teams this season, covering as chalk against Oregon State and failing against the number to Notre Dame. The in-season trend that’s also caught my eye is that Illinois has been covering the spread in every minute of two Big Ten games and rarely spent any time against UTSA and Virginia on the right side of the number. Maybe Virginia and UTSA are just better than the soft underbelly of the Big Ten? I buy that. And that’s exactly where the Boilermakers reside. The Pick: Illinois +11
NEBRASKA AT MICHIGAN STATE, 7:00, FS1
LINES: MICHIGAN STATE -5; O/U 52.5
Before the season started, I figured this game would be the Licking Their Wounds Bowl. It made sense, what with Nebraska and Michigan State meeting each other fresh off games at Oklahoma and Miami during which they were expected to lose big as big underdogs. Instead, Michigan State beat Miami going away and Nebraska, expected to be a sacrificial slaughter, pushed the Sooners to the end and had the ball with a chance to tie at the end. Both teams have been receiving kudos rather than the expected final rites this week. Is this now a Don’t Rest On Your Laurels Bowl?
We’ve been ahead of the curve with Michigan State this year, so their performances as an underdog didn’t come as a surprise. We’re going to attempt to be ahead of the curve again on Michigan State and go against them in their first big spot as a favorite this season. I’m somewhat on board with Nebraska after last week’s effort. They fought through adversity and went to the wire with an obviously more talented team. Michigan State doesn’t out talent Nebraska necessarily. The Husker defense is well on its way to lowering its yards per play allowed for the fourth straight season. They’ll provide more of a challenge to MSU’s emerging offense than the rebuilding Northwestern defense and the lazy Miami one.
Meanwhile, Adrian Martinez is low key having the best season of any QB in the Big Ten. He’s at least in the team photo. He’s averaging 10.4 yards per pass and has a pair of 70+ runs on his early 2021 highlight reel. More importantly, he only has two turnovers on the season. This game stays close because of Martinez chunk plays and the Huskers defense won’t miss half as many tackles as Miami did a week ago. The Pick: Nebraska +5
RUTGERS AT MICHIGAN, 3:30, ABC
LINES: MICHIGAN -20.5; O/U 50.5
After finishing a 3-0 out of conference season, Rutgers is halfway to a bowl game. Don’t forget, the Scarlet Knights went 3-6 against the Big Ten a year ago, so if they repeat that feat this fall, they’ll go bowling. In addition to those three wins in 2020, Rutgers lost a game in triple OT and two more by 3 and 7 points respectively. The postseason run is on in Piscataway.
Schiano made Rutgers surprisingly credible in many ways a year ago. One area that stood out was their disruptive defensive front. Rutgers went from dead last in the Big Ten in tackles for loss and sacks per game in 2019 to leading the conference in TFLs per game and 5th in sacks per game in 2020. The Scarlet Knights ranked 11th nationally in TFLs per game in 2020 after having been 103rd or worse in three straight years. They will test your offensive line’s IQ and quickness with constant stunts. With over 80 percent of that disruptive production returning, the negative play train has continued into 2021. Thirteen different players have already registered at least one TFL. The Knights are strong up the middle with DT Julius Turner, who’s now playing on passing downs, LB Olakunle Fatusaki, a typical Big Ten tackle machine, and run stopper safety Avery Young. The trio have already combined for 11.5 TFLS and seven sacks. It’s early, but Rutgers is first again in the league in TFLs per game and 10th nationally.
Up next is a Michigan team that’s barely allowed a negative play all year and is first nationally in TFLs allowed per game. Can Rutgers disrupt Michigan’s smooth running rushing attack? Can they get the Wolverines into enough down and distances that forces Cade McNamara to throw the ball in order the move the chains? And if McNamara throws, can he take advantage of a Rutgers secondary that’s without arguably its most talented player in coverage in freshman phenom Max Melton, suspended after a paint ball shooting incident. He already has a couple picks, 4 PBUs, and a punt block on the young season. My stat hunch? McNamara goes over 200 yards passing while the rush offense still produces piles and piles of yards.
On the other side of the ball, Rutgers offensive line has not been getting any push. Their tailbacks are averaging just 3.6 yards per rush. They’re still a very Rutgers-y 121st nationally with 9 TFLs allowed per game. Every Rutgers game is a TFL feast on both sides of the ball. Adrian Hutchison will have a huge game. In the wake of last week’s blowout of Northern Illinois, Huskie QB Rocky Lombardi, who spearheaded an upset of UM as the MSU QB in 2020, said the Michigan defense was completely different from a season ago and had his offense flummoxed. That continues this week and a Rutgers team that leapt out to a 21-0 lead and scored 35 points in regulation against the Wolverines a year ago, won’t come close to duplicating that success. Michigan will slowly, but surely pull away in this game and win by four touchdowns. The Pick: Michigan -20.5
How about a few picks away from the Big Ten….
Western Michigan -2.5 over San Jose State…..This might be the Body Clock Game Of The Year. San Jose State played at Hawaii last week in the game that finished after @ a.m. Sunday Pacific Coast Time. Now they’re flying across the country in another direction for an early afternoon kick against a solid Western Michigan team. And it’s going to be rainy and windy all game. We’ll take the team home team from the Midwest and lay the short number.
Kansas State +6 over Oklahoma State…..Kansas State is 18-10 against the spread as an underdog since the beginning of the 2018 season. We’ll jump on that in the Big-12 opener for both teams. In a game that won’t have much offense, Wildcat RB Deuce Vaughn gives us the difference maker.
UTSA +3 over Memphis…..We’re quite smitten with the Roadrunners having tracked them since their win over Illinois in the opener. We admit, there’s a chance we’re jumping on this because it might be the last time UTSA isn’t double digit chalk as they enter Conference USA play next month. Indeed, UTSA was 11.5-point favorites against league foe Middle Tennessee State in last week’s 27-13 win. The Roadrunners a have great 1-2-3 punch with QB Frank Harris, WR Zachariah Franklin, and RB Sincere McCormick. They’ll give a Memphis D that allows almost six yards a play fits all day. The Roadrunner defense is feisty, allowing just 4.05 yards per play. They will surprise Memphis who’s probably not expecting much from UTSA on that side of the ball after playing an SEC team week. Speaking of that, this must be an emotional hangover for the Tigers, a week after a thrilling and newsworthy controversial win over Mississippi State. The Roadrunners will take advantage of a flat Memphis team to establish an early lead. Don’t be surprised if they never relinquish it.