Nebraska at Illinois Preview
It's still only August, but Scott Frost or Brett Bielema will lose. Don't miss the memes.
Just when you thought you had plenty of summer left, this game pops up in Week Zero. Scott Frost or Brett Bielema will lose a game before August ends. The loser will be excoriated on social media. It’s the Sicko Game Of The Week. Who wants to miss that?
Illinois won this game a year ago by 18 points, thanks to five Nebraska turnovers. Two years ago, the Huskers needed a 15-3 fourth quarter to escape Champaign with a 42-38 win. The Illini have scored at least 10 points in seven of their 12 quarters against Frosts’ Nebraska and at least a touchdown in two others, averaging 37.6 points per game. Translation? Don’t be totally shocked if this isn’t easy for Nebraska.
Nothing has been during the Frost Era. Or the last 15 years really. How about just going over your betting win total just once? Nebraska has failed to do that in three straight full seasons and four of the last five. That doesn’t even account for last year’s 3-5 slog. The bar has been set at 6.5 wins (6 at some places) this season. The hurdle for the over is a schedule with four seemingly automatic losses: A week 3 visit to Oklahoma as 19.5-point underdogs and a closing final three game stretch of Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Iowa, whom Nebraska is a combined 4-22 against since joining the Big Ten, 0-8 under Frost. Going through the rest of the schedule, there are plenty of games where Nebraska from an historical perspective should win. It’s been a long time since those days, however. For example, Nebraska is just 4-8 over the last four seasons against fellow West Division foes Northwestern, Purdue, and Minnesota. Can they flip the script in those divisional games? Can you count on them to beat either Michigan or Michigan State? They’ll need to go 3-2 in those five game to make a bowl game. The Huskers might be able to do that. But they’ll need a 4-1 mark to record the seven wins needed for the season over. They’ve been too unreliable of a program to count on that. It’s Under or nothing.
One consistent thing during the Frost Era has been soft expectations from the administration who hired him. Softer than the public, at least. Remember the leadup to the 2019 campaign when everyone was predicting a run to the Big Ten Title Game for Frost’s second year? It was Nebraska AD Bill Moos who countered that by saying his expectations were just making a bowl game. He was also on record saying to expect it to take four years for Frost to turn things around. Guess what? Welcome to Year Four. It is also now *former* athletic director Bill Moos. Nebraska all but forced him into an early retirement and quickly replaced him with Trev Alberts, who like Frost starred as a player under Tom Osborne. Don’t be fooled into thinking Alberts is some Osborne Era crony who won’t fire Frost after a disappointing 2021. He will, especially if he can leverage recent revelations of NCAA violations regarding secret workouts into taking a major chunk out of the $20 million buyout that Frost would otherwise be owed if canned after this season.
As for the Illini, the hiring of Brett Bielema finally gives them some college football coaching credibility for the first time since, well, I don’t know when? It certainly wasn’t with Lovie Smith. Or Tim Beckman. Or Ron Zook. Or Ron Turner. Ok, maybe a little bit with Zook and his ability to recruit, but the fact is Illinois has a long-term bad habit of hiring bad coaches. Bielema’s track record with his previous work at Wisconsin gives the Illini a chance to change that narrative. If you’re an optimist, you think Bielema’s return to the Big Ten could charge Illinois up so much that there’s an obvious uptick in competitiveness like at Rutgers a year ago in Greg Schiano’s return to that school. The pessimist would say when you’re hoping for a Rutgers-like improvement, your situation is dire. Illinois did manage to beat that “resurgent” Rutgers team a year ago, so why can’t this year’s Illini team be among the most improved in the league?
The oddsmakers aren’t expecting much. They’ve set the Over/Under at 3.5 wins, the lowest in the Big Ten. Among the Power-5 schools, only Kansas has a lower win total prop. Even though the Illini are currently underdogs in all nine of their Power 5 games posted at Draft Kings, Illini bloggers are confident in the over. So is the betting public. The Over is priced at a somewhat chalky -135. I’d fade that with whatever plus odds you can find. If you are on either side of the Illini prop, then this game is important. Breaking down Illinois’ schedule, they have two sure likely wins over Charlotte and UTSA and six games where they’re already projected as double-digit underdogs. Those half dozen are all likely losses. That leaves four “winnable” games where the Illini are only an underdog by a single score or less: Maryland (Illini +4.5), Northwestern (Illini +6.5), Rutgers (no line posted, but likely a single score spread) and this opener against Nebraska, where the current line is Illini +7. If the Illini can squeak out a 2-2 record in those four games, then the Over would probably hit. If you’re on either side of the 3.5 wins, congrats you’re a total degenerate. And you have swing game in August.
It'll be fun to have Big Ten Football back even if it is the single game this weekend. Here are five things I’m taking notes on for future podcast material….
SUPER SENIORS!
Get used to the term Super Seniors. It will be mentioned a lot on broadcasts this year. It will certainly have its own square on most of the game preview Bingo cards that get created. These are players back for a final year of ball, despite having run out of eligibility, but because everyone received an extra year of eligibility in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, return for one last call. We’ll hear a lot about these players throughout the season and their impact. Nebraska-Illinois is a perfect first game for these narratives. Both of these teams have a legitimate chance to improve because of the group of Super Seniors who returned.
Nebraska has a chance at having a good defense because of this. Four starters from a defense that’s steadily improved in recent years return for a sixth season: DBs Marquel Dismuke and Deontai Williams, LB JoJo Doman, and DE Ben Stille. For that matter, you can toss in Cam Taylor-Britt, who probably wouldn’t have passed up the NFL Draft if those guys departed. The Huskers have improved their yards per play allowed every season under DC Erik Chinander. He inherited a group that allowed 6.34 yards per play the season before he arrived, dead last in the conference. They’ve incrementally improved each season and last year allowed only 5.46 yards per play, 8th in the league. That number looks primed to jump into the top half of the conference and that probably would not be possible without these returnees. Nebraska’s defensive recruiting has not been great under Frost. Their top 2020 defensive back recruits have left the program. While they’ve brought in some intriguing transfers at each level of the defense, Nebraska probably doesn’t have the defensive roster to have replaced those four Super Seniors plus one without some sort of step backwards, so this also helps bridge the gap to the future on that side of the ball.
For Illinois, they have 22 Super Seniors on the roster, most among Power-5 teams, including some of their top players from a year ago: QB Brendan Peters, LB Jake Hanson, CB Tony Adams and a pair of solid kicks in James McCourt and Blake Hayes. It also includes three starters on one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. The Illini have 123 combined returning starts on the offensive line. C Doug Kramer and LT Vederian Lowe are on the Outland Trophy Preseason Watchlist, making Illinois only one of two Big Ten teams, along with Ohio State, with two offensive linemen on that list. How perfect for Bielema to inherit a group that could be among the league’s best. The Illini were third in the Big Ten in yards per carry. With tailback Chase Brown, who cracked the All Big Ten third team and averaged 5.2 yards per carry, the Illini should have a chance to pound the rock like Bielema wants to. At the very least, they should provide the Nebraska run defense, that improved its yards per rush allowed by more than a half yard last season, an early test.
DOES NEBRASKA’S SELF DESTRUCTIVE OFFENSE RETURN?
How can the Huskers avoid a messy divorce in a few months? The number one thing they could do is to stop killing themselves on offense. Bad shotgun snaps have been an issue for two seasons in a row. Penalties have been a problem as the Husker have finished towards the bottom of the Big Ten in penalties and penalty yards per game in two of Frost’s three seasons, including a year ago. Then there are the turnovers. Bushels and bushels of turnovers. Nebraska has 61 turnovers in 31 games under Frost. They’ve only had four turnover free games in the last three seasons. They’ve only won the turnover margin in nine games under Frost. They’re 4-18 when they don’t win the turnover margin, 2-13 when they lose it. The Huskers have had 15 games of three of more fumble games in the Frost Era and have had as many games with at least two fumbles as games with zero fumbles, 10 apiece. Can they finally figure out how to turn off the turnover spigot? If so, combined with, say, Cam Jurgens figuring out his shotgun snap issues, then Nebraska is going to be a good football squad this year.
A quick note about turnovers on the other side of the ball for the Huskers. Nebraska only recovered two of its opponents 13 fumbles a year ago. They ended the season on a streak of nine straight opponent fumbles which they didn’t recover. The Illini fumbled four times a year ago in this contest, but Nebraska couldn’t get on the ball on any of them. They lost two of their own four fumbles. That explains how this game went off the rails for Nebraska a year ago. This would be an appropriate place for Nebraska’s fumble luck to regress to the mean.
NEBRASKA’S WIDE RECEIVER REBOOT
Who in the world will Adrian Martinez be throwing too? Nebraska’s WR room has undergone a reboot by necessity, and they don’t have any proven commodities at this level. None of the WR recruits the program brought in during the 2017-19 classes remain with the program. That’s 13 players, including the team’s biggest playmaker the last two years in Wan’dale Robinson. The upshot of all that attrition is the top three WRs on their opening week depth chart are all transfers: Omar Manning, Samori Toure, and Oliver Martin. Manning was a top JUCO recruit in 2020 who didn’t see any playing time a year ago despite being eligible. Toure was an FCS All-American in 2019 for Montana. Martin is on his third Big Ten school after previous stints at Michigan and Iowa. Here’s an interesting stat on Martin. He had 11 catches for 125 yards in his one season at Michigan in 2018. He has 10 catches for 91 yards combined since then playing for both Iowa and Nebraska. Alante Brown and Zavier Betts made some plays here and there a year ago during their true freshmen seasons and should be in the mix too. The passing game lacked punch a year ago. Their yards per attempt fell by over a yard from 2019 and they were 10th in the Big Ten in pass plays of 10 or more yards, 13th in passing plays of 20 or more yards. Can this new group, which has size and athleticism the Huskers have lacked in recent years, inject some big play pop into the passing game? Can any of them even play at all? This is the epitome of a wild card position group.
SEARCH FOR TIGHT END PROPS
The first game of the whole season is a Big Ten game, so it must involve some Tight End play making. It’s the law. Nebraska’s Austin Allen and Illinois’ Daniel Barker are two guys who’ll compete all-conference honors. Both were their teams’ second leading receivers a year ago in yards and catches. Allen led the Huskers in yards per catch, while Barker was second on the Illini. Barker had at least one catch of 20 or more yards in six of seven games last year. Allen did the same in five of eight games. Given how inexperienced the wide receivers corps are for both teams, both will be something akin to a go to guy. Both will reset their career season highs too and should make some solid early headway towards that in the opener. I can see each catching more than 3 passes and exceeding 60 yards receiving. Both are good bets to score a touchdown. If player props are your thing, look to see if there are any offered for these two.
SPECIAL TEAMS WILL BE IMPORTANT
#Analysis. Nebraska has not been good on special teams under Frost. The Huskers finished 103rd in the S&P special teams rankings in 2019 and 92nd last season. They were last in the league in punt average in 2020, 113rd nationally in net punting and, 93rd in kickoff return yardage allowed. They’ve fired their special teams coordinator two years in a row. Conor Culp has developed into a really good PK, but otherwise it’s been all bad. One reason has been having to lean on walk-ons to fill special team roles so much. There has been a lot of buzz on various Nebraska podcasts and articles that this won’t be the case anymore and the special teams will be stocked with players from the regular units two-deep. We’ll see if and how fast this has a positive impact for Nebraska. Meanwhile, Illinois regressed on special teams a year ago after having a top-10 unit nationally in 2019, helping the Illini along a surprise bowl run. Will they be improved or confused in Game One with a new coaching staff? The Illini do return a pair of great kickers in PK James McCourt and P Blake Hayes. Hayes was the conference’s punter of the year in 2019 and has pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line 48 times over the last two seasons. McCourt has a big leg and can reliably put points on the board from 40 yards and out and has four career FGs of longer than 50 yards.
Prediction: These teams have played sloppy games against each other the last two years. Expect more of the same in this one. Nebraska wins, but Illinois covers, 20-16, and College Football Twitter loves every second of the slop.