Big Ten Picks: Week 3
Can Nebraska compete? Is Michigan State for real? Can Auburn survive a White Out?
A quick look at the most important games this weekend in the Big Ten. With picks!
MARYLAND AT ILLINOIS, 9:00, FS1. (FRIDAY NIGHT)
Odds: Maryland -7, O/U 61.5.
Since they’re win over Nebraska in the opener, Illinois has never led, spent 51 minutes and change of game time behind by at least double digits, and have allowed 9.7 yards per pass. They’ve permitted 16 of a total 37 drives to cover at least 60 yards and result in a score. That includes their first two drives of both halves in last two games. They’ve allowed a 400-yard passer, a 280-yard passer, two 100-yard receivers, and 29 passing plays of at least 10 yards, including six covering at least 30 yards. I don’t know what’s worse. The Illinois Defense. Or the fact that Nebraska could not take advantage of it the way UTSA and Virginia did the last two weeks.
The worst part could be what’s coming next for the Illini as they welcome the high-flying Terrapins into town. Taulia Tagovailoa and his next level wide receiver talents Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus is not the right tonic for this beleaguered pass defense. Taulia is averaging 9.6 yards per throw this year, completing 76% of his passes, and has shown plenty of chunk play ability. The only way Illinois corrals this offense is if their pass rush can revert to the form in the opener. They had five sacks of Adrian Martinez in the opener, but just one sack in the two weeks as opposing quarterbacks carved them apart. Maryland, however, has ceded just one sack apiece in both games this year. The Terps revamped offensive line and the nimble Tailia have been solid at avoiding the pressure that’s been thrown their way so far.
The play here is not only Maryland, but also anything associated with its offense. Seek out whatever prop bets you can find that puts you on the side of this Terps O. Team total. Passing yards props. Receiving yards props. Longest TD scored. Whatever you can find to take advantage of this offense-defense matchup. Demus has gone over 100 yards in both games this year. Garrett is averaging 94.5 yards per game. Both have already scored twice this season. Don’t overlook the tight end, Chigozien Okonkwo. He’s only caught two passes this year, but both have been for scores. Virginia TE Jelani Woods lit up Illinois to the tune of 122 yards and a score last week.
NEBRASKA AT OKLAHOMA, NOON, FOX.
Odds: Oklahoma -22.5, O/U 61.5
The key matchup in this one is the expected blowout versus my home entertainment set up. I’ve got three TVs set up in a row for Saturday gamedays. Usually an historic rivalry like Nebraska-Oklahoma would be front and center on the main TV. But this isn’t the 1970s anymore. Or 2001. My guess is my TVs will be locked into Michigan-Northern Illinois, Michigan St-Miami, and Indiana-Cincinnati during the noon window. So maybe Nebraska-Oklahoma gets the laptop treatment? Except I kind of want to keep an eye on Virginia Tech-West Virginia, which is also a renewal of a nasty rivalry and will be competitive. Huskers-Sooners on my phone? Is that what this rivalry has become? Pretty much. The key to this game is can Nebraska fight and somehow be competitive enough to force this game up the food chain on my Saturday viewing setup to an actual television.
Don’t hold your breath. Nebraska needs to pay a perfect game just to stay close. Unfortunately, this squad can’t play a perfect, clean game. Look at what happened last week against Buffalo. They had three TDs called back by penalty and didn’t recover to score on any of those drives. They missed three field goals. They muffed a punt return for the third straight week. They needed a miracle Adrian Martinez 71-yard scramble to break a scoreless tie right before halftime. And they relied on a lot of Bulls mistakes of their own to finally pull away in the second half.
That’s the rub right now with Nebraska. They are way to reliant on the inconsistent Martinez for any semblance of offense. They can’t run the football unless it’s with their QB. While Martinez has gone over the century mark in rushing against the two FBS foes they’ve faced, their tailbacks have gone for just 160 yards on 50 carries. That’s just 3.2 yards per carry against Illinois and Buffalo. That just stinks against those defenses. Coming into the season, the Huskers WR and RB rooms were question marks after transfers riddled those positions. Now with injuries, they might be down to walk-ons at the wideout spots headed into Norman. Martinez’s most reliable weapon TE Austin Allen is also out for this game. It’s pretty much Martinez or bust for the Huskers. I think he makes a big play or two that keeps this cosmetically close for a while. Who knows, maybe another long QB scamper moves the viewing experience of this game onto an actual TV. The Sooners, however, will pull away in a dominant second half and cover the three touchdown plus spread.
MICHIGAN STATE AT MIAMI FLORIDA, NOON, ABC
Odds: Miami -6.5, O/U 56.5
I can’t get over the change in odds over this game. When Draft Kings released Games Of The Year lines over the summer, the Canes were installed as 16-point favorites. Now that it’s game week? The line is only Miami -7. Has Michigan State looked that great over Northwestern and Youngstown State? Has Miami looked that bad against Alabama and Appalachian State? We two teams with two different moods meeting in this one.
I admit that I’ve done a 180 of sorts on this game as well. When I first looked at the schedule, I assumed I’d be making jokes on the combined Over/Under margin of defeat for Nebraska and Michigan in their simultaneous noon showdowns with brand names. But now this is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing games for me track. Michigan State looks credible, their improvements are obvious, and they look more than capable of returning to bowl play. But now the competition steps up significantly. Do those improvements hold strong enough to stick with the Canes?
Watching the Canes’ game against Appalachian State last weekend and often the best thing going on for either side was the Mountaineers ability to run the football with Camerun Peoples, who rushed for 95 yards and 5.6 per carry. It was very easy to envision Kenneth Walker III hitting those same holes for MSU. If State QB Peyton Thorne can throw the ball a little better than the Mountaineers QB did, then the Spartans can win. Summer Me is shocked that I’m even thinking that. Miami is a lot like Nebraska. They make too many mistakes and are way too reliant so far on D’Eriq King just making plays. They don’t beat the Mountaineers without his scrambling and playmaking on the fly. King, however, still doesn’t look as smooth as he used to in the wake on his ACL injury nine months ago.
Is there a chance that Michigan State just isn’t as good as Appalachian State and the Canes break out against the Spartans? Sure. In fact, after the game we’ll be selling the Spartans’ improvements on defense, especially the Back 7. But we’ll also be buying their improvements on offense. I expect them to keep up every step of the way. I love Walker. Reed and Nailor will continue to make big plays. We’ll get some fireworks in this game. State may not win, but it’s going to be a lot more competitive than we originally thought. The Canes are just 10-15 ATS in their last 25 starts as home chalk. The game is at Miami, so half the fans in attendance will be Michigan State fans.
CINCINNATI AT INDIANA, NOON, ESPN
Odds: Cincinnati -3, O/U 49
Indiana is already on football fans bad side for the no-show against Iowa in Week One. If they beat Cincinnati and crush the playoff dreams of the Group of Five’s best shot, the Hoosiers might just become the villains of the college football world. We’ve come a long way since the darling 2020 Hoosiers. Both in vibe and quality of play. And not in the correct direction.
The Hoosier offense is just not good. They put up 56 points against Idaho but averaged a mere 4.8 yards per play in the process. I suppose the good news is that’s a 1.2-yard improvement per play over what the offense achieved against Iowa in Week One. This was against an FCS team, however. This should be one of your best offensive performances of the season with eye popping stats and big plays. That didn’t happen here. Indiana’s rout of the Vandals was built on special teams and short fields after turnovers. When Indiana was forced to travel the field, they were underwhelming. One first half drive ended with a punt after back-to-back sacks. On their first touchdown drive, they needed 18 plays to travel 75 yards. Here’s how the yardage gained per play broke down to cover the final 31 yards: -2, 5, 3,4, 2,4, 2, 3, 3, and 2. They also netted five yards on a defensive penalty by Idaho. Their second touchdown drive needed 12 plays, nine of which went for less than 5 yards. Woof. The Mike DeBord is strong with current IU offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan.
This rare meeting between these programs find both in rarified air with a ton of stakes on the line. Hopes for my alma mater to play spoiler aside, I don’t see it in this one against the Bearcats. The good news for Indiana is this game is a rare sellout at Memorial Stadium. But there will be a ton of Bearcat fans in the stands. This will look a lot like the Hoosiers Gator Bowl loss to Ole Miss back in January. The Bearcats speed and pace on offense will get the otherwise solid IU defense on its heels. It’ll put up enough points in the early going to play with the lead most of the day. The Hoosiers will fart around on offense, eventually get a little rhythm going, but waste the big plays they do hit with field goals. They’re totally going to turn it over on downs after getting stuffed on a fourth and short run. A game that’s still in the balance will get tilted towards Cincinnati on a Desmond Ridder bomb. Or an in interception on a forced Michael Penix Jr. throw. Or probably both. Too much speed and explosiveness from the Bearcats in this one.
MINNESOTA AT COLORADO, 1:00, PAC-12 NETWORK
Odds: Colorado -3, O/U 48.5
This game is a 1pm start and will be aired on the Pac-12 Network. I feel like this is enough grounds to dissolve The Alliance. What do the Buffs have left in their tank? They balled out on defense a week ago against Texas A/M, keeping an Aggies offense oozing with a talent out of the end zone until very late in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 10-7. The Buffs need a bye week, not a visit from a power running Big Ten team with an offensive line that blocks out the sun. The Gophers cruised to a 21-3 halftime lead last week against Miami Ohio, eased up in third quarter letting the Redhawks back in the game, before flipping the switch back on and clinching the game with the running of Terry Potts. I’m not going to panic about that result. Under Fleck, the Gophers have specialized in playing down to G5 opponents and keeping those teams in the game.
I give the Buffs a lot of credit for their effort against the Aggies last week. But the Aggies starting QB got knocked out early in the game and his backup was not up to the job. The Aggies had to adjust on the fly and an aggressive, intense Colorado defense made those adjustments difficult. The Gophers have been dealt an injury blow with the loss of Mo Ibrahim for the season. But Potts has stepped in and gained 178 yards with two scores. Minnesota has scored 50 touchdowns on the ground in their last 22 games. The Gophers could get a boost with the return of WR Chris Autman-Bell to the lineup, giving the Gophers their best pass catcher back. The Gophers are also on an 11-5-1 ATS run when catching points. I’ll take a stab with them here.
PURDUE AT NOTRE DAME, 2:30, NBC
Odds: Notre Dame -7, O/U 58
Notre Dame’s defense has had transition issues with new DC Marcus Freeman’s scheme. They’ve been vulnerable to chunks plays, giving up 28 plays of 10 or more yards through two games, 85th nationally. They’ve already given up four plays of 60 or more yards, which is more plays of that length they allowed all last season. They’ve also allowed scores on 42.3% of the drives they’ve faced. Purdue has better quarterbacking than FSU and Toledo and with David Bell leading the way a wide receiver corps that’s more dangerous. It’s a tough offense to iron out your defensive issues against. The Boilers ought to be able to do the type of damage the Noles and Rockets did. On offense, Jack Coan has been solid for the Irish, but the blocking in front of him has not. The Irish have already allowed 10 sacks and 20 TFLs this year. They’re rushing for a mere 2.66 yards per attempt. The Irish might be shuffling their tackle positions due to injury. That sounds like lunch to Boilers DE George Kaloftis.
Under Jeff Brohm, Purdue has had a penchant for losing close games. They’ve also had a knack as covering as underdogs. In the Brohm Era, the Boilermakers are 16-5 against the spread with nine outright wins. All these games were against Big Ten or other Power-5 foes. For Purdue, this game is a rivalry. A chance to stick it in the face of the football powerhouse in their own backyard in northwest Indiana. They’ve probably been focused on this game a lot during the offseason. For Notre Dame, this is a trap game. One last tune-up before a stretch of five ranked teams in five weeks. Before that begins, the Irish will have their hands full with Purdue. This game stays within a single touchdown.
AUBURN AT PENN STATE, 7:30, ABC
Odds: Penn State -6, O/U 52
Auburn comes into this game on the heels of destructions of Akron and Alabama State by a combined 121-10. That looks nice, but those teams are some of the worst clubs in their division of football. Now Auburn’s introduction to real football in 2021 and road crowds in two years will be at night at Penn State during a White Out. That’s arguably the best homefield advantage in the sport right now. Auburn and Bo Nix’s road struggles are real. Nix has tossed as many picks on the road as he’s thrown TDs. It’s not that hard to see Auburn quaking in their boots just enough in the early going and find themselves in a hole, playing from behind all night. It could be a lot like Michigan’s fate under similar white out conditions in 2017 and 2019. What’s louder, the White Out or Nix’s critics?
I’m reluctant to go against the White Out, but I remain a bit of a Penn State skeptic. Their win over Wisconsin had more to do with the Badgers mistakes and inability to score in the red zone. The Badgers probably win that game 90 out of 100 times. I think Auburn will be able to do a lot of what Wisconsin did to Penn State. Auburn’s offensive line should push around Penn State’s interior the way Wisconsin did. Tank Bigsby and his fellow tailbacks ought to be able to break the big play the Badgers could not. Nix and his SEC receivers can make the plays over the top that the Badgers personnel aren’t able to. On the other side of the ball, the Penn State offensive front ought to have the same problems handling an SEC defensive front as they did with the Badgers. Maybe James Franklin and company are distracted by the USC rumor mill? Auburn looks like a solid team to take an almost touchdown head start with. Hopefully they survive the first quarter.
In Summary: Maryland -7, Cincy -3, Oklahoma -22.5, Michigan State +6.5, Minnesota +3, Purdue +7, Auburn +6. Good luck and have fun this weekend!